The End of Replacement Fertility: Demographic Transition in Chile (2010–2023)

Abstract

Introduction: Chile is undergoing an advanced demographic transition; however, there is no recent evidence integrating the full set of vital statistics indicators. Methodology: A quantitative, descriptive-analytical, retrospective longitudinal study was conducted. The Crude Birth Rate (CBR), Total Fertility Rate (TFR), Crude Mortality Rate (CMR), and Life Expectancy at Birth (LEB) in Chile were analyzed. Temporal trends were assessed using simple linear regression. Results: The CBR declined from 14.72 to 8.73 live births per 1,000 inhabitants (β = -0.493; R² = 0.943; p < 0.001), while the TFR decreased from 1.88 to 1.16 children per woman (β = -0.061; R² = 0.922; p < 0.001), reaching its lowest historical level, equivalent to 55% of the replacement fertility threshold. The CMR increased from 5.70 to 6.10 deaths per 1,000 inhabitants, peaking at 7.00 in 2021 (β = 0.084; R² = 0.520; p = 0.004). LEB increased from 79.1 to 81.2 years, with a temporary reduction of 1.7 years attributable to COVID-19, although the trend was not statistically significant (R² = 0.130; p = 0.206). Discussion: The findings confirm an advanced stage of the Second Demographic Transition, characterized by persistently below-replacement fertility. The increase in mortality reflects structural population aging. Conclusion: Chile has consolidated a scenario of low fertility and accelerated population aging, requiring a reformulation of health planning, strengthening of long-term care systems, and the design of public policies oriented toward the life course of a society experiencing demographic decline.